2011 Oscar Predictions

By Glenn & Jake

We've taken on this issue before and we are not afraid to take it on again. While other writers and websites cower at the news of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, we attack it with the vigor of Mark Wahlberg sawing off his own arm in "The Fighter." We know it will hurt us but have to if we want to save our lives. Think of this Oscar Nominations article as your transformation into the Black Swan, the most popular toy in Toy Story 3D. No matter what you think of our personal picks for who should and shouldn't win Best Picture, we can all agree on one thing: this article is too long and there are too many nominees. Don't blame us though.



The Fighter
Jake says...There was no movie this year that featured more fighting than The Fighter. Nearly every second of this film is filled with either kicking or punching. If you have a heart condition going into this movie, you will leave in a body bag--as a corpse! Usually, the Academy of Motion Pictures does not nominate action pictures like this, but after Crank 2: High Voltage was nominated last year, the flood gates have been open. This is a long shot.

Glenn says...The best part of this movie was the trailer that featured Christine Aguilera's "Fighter." I agree with Jake that usually the Academy doesn't nominate movies that are just about fighting, but past nominees Ali (also about boxing) and I Spit On Your Grave prove there are exceptions to this rule. This is definitely a long shot and if it wins I would be more surprised than when Ricky Geravis made fun of people on an awards show.

The Green Hornet 3D
Jake says...I was shocked when Mo'Nique said the name of this film as a nominee for Best Picture, not just because I don't think a lot of black people saw it, but because it was universally panned by the critics. This is the "guilty pleasure" nomination. When Avatar won last year, it opened the door for other 3D movies to get nominated and win. I was surprised to see this get nominated, but I will not be surprised when it wins. Seth Rogen is an "everyman" type, and he makes you think that even you can partner up with an Asian and take on nefarious villains.

Glenn says...After The Dark Knight the comic-loving/movie-loving world wondered what could top that film. The answer is The Green Hornet in 3D, which is a three dimensional way of watching a movie and an even more dimensional way of looking at classic costumed hero "The Green Hornet." Seth Rogen plays draft pick Alonzo Mourning, the "greenest" player on the 1992-1993 Charlotte Hornets. The film works on an epic scale, dealing with Mourning's rise to the top and the controversial move from the Hornets to New Orleans. The film closes with a powerful reenactment of Hurricane Katrina, making it the first Best Picture nominee to deal with that dark time in our nation's history.

The Social Network
Jake says...This movie is about Facebook. This is essentially the Academy of Motion Pictures getting around not nominating websites for an Oscar. Luckily, Google didn't release a movie this year or else this would have no chance. The Academy is going to "Like" this movie and might even "Friend" it with an Oscar.

Glenn says...For years I was a strong advocate of Facebook over MySpace and the Academy has now joined me. The ground-breaking documentary "Teens Posting Bulletins: the Unauthorized Story of MySpace" received zero nominations this year while The Social Network was nominated for Best Picture and Jesse Eisenberg is being given a Lifetime Achievement Award. Michael Cera will win it next year.

Black Swan
Jake says...This is not a movie about actual swans, but rather a dark take on the world of ballet. Natalie Portman stars as a ballerina, who is friends with Ashton Kutcher, and must juggle being "friends with benefits" with Ashton and the harsh and competitive world of ballet. Ashton Kutcher is probably going to pick up another statue for his phenomenal performance in this dark and hilarious film.

Glenn says...It's about time a movie about ballet gets a nomination and it's about time Natalie Portman (Israeli citizen and Mars Attacks! star) got some recognition as well. Black Swan brought racial elements into a big budget film that hasn't been seen since 2007's winner Crash - another movie I saw with my parents and felt uncomfortable watching due to the extreme act of female-female oral sex.

The King's Speech
Jake says...I was glad that they finally made a Martin Luther King biopic. It has been over a decade since Malcolm X was released and won the Best Picture Oscar. Now, it's time for MLK to pick one up. I never realized that King had a stutter--you really cannot pick it up from listening to his speeches on iTunes. This is an odds on favorite to win.

Glenn says...This movie has a lot of hype around it for good reason. There are few movies made these days that contain only a speech with no back story or dialogue between characters. The few to come out in recent years featured famous speeches by George W. Bush, which stood no chance to be nominated. The long speech of King Leopold II defending his actions in the Belgian Congo has been memorized by children in the former Zaire for years and now it's a movie!

Inception
Jake says...Inception is one of the few movies on this list I didn't see. I heard from a lot of people that it was just a remake of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and that it was confusing. Also, it is the only movie nominated for an Academy Award this year that doesn't feature any super heroes. I was hoping that the new X-Men movie would come out and sweep the Oscars, but I guess we will have to wait until next year. This movie is not going to win because nobody from it was nominated for anything else.

Glenn says...This made the most money of all the Best Picture nominees, which means it has to be considered "this year's Avatar" or "this year's Lord of the Rings: Return of the King." While both of those movies were about a fictional world, Inception suffers from being based in reality. In our current world ravaged by war, diseases and gun violence, the Academy is less likely to reward a movie about dreams and more gun violence. We have too much of those things already.

Winter's Bone
Jake says...Winter's Bone is a tale of extremely cold weather and bones. It is easy to relate to the season winter, since we're in the midst of it right now, and we are also filled with bones. This could be considered the most relatable film nominated for an Oscar, but it also features the most male full frontal nudity. They had to nominate ten films, so they might as well nominate a movie about bones, winter and close-ups of puds.

Glenn says...If they'll make a movie about Yogi Bear, they might as well make a movie based on the book series and PBS show "Clifford." They did and it's called Winter's Bone. This is a story of when Clifford buried a bone in summer and can't find it when winter comes around. If that sounds compelling to you, you have some serious emotional issues. This will not win and should not have been nominated.

True Grit
Jake says...True Grit is the Coen Brothers' film about John Wayne's movie True Grit. It is an interesting take on John Wayne and his classic film, but it also deals with the book it was based on. People do not like books anymore, it's all iPad this and Hulu that. They should make more movies about John Wayne and less movies about books and reading.

Glenn says...Western movies are about to undergo a renaissance. After John Wayne died of AIDS and Clint Eastwood started directing movies, Westerns grew out of style - not unlike overalls that were worn ironically in the early 1990s. True Grit is to Western movies what Batman Forever is to comic book movies: the jolt to the movie-going public that will reawaken their desire to see morality portrayed in black and white terms. The Academy doesn't think in black and white and won't nominate movies that do (or are in), so don't count on True Grit to go anywhere.

Toy Story 3
Jake says...Out of all the movie nominated this year, no movie is filled with more raw human emotion than this movie about toys. This movie was in 3D, which makes you feel like a toy that has been thrown away and about to be murdered. If any movie about toys could win an Oscar, it is this one. This will also be the last time Tim Allen is allowed to star in a movie, much to the chagrin of his fan.

Glenn says...This is the movie that made me remember why I got into the writing-about-movies-on-the-internet-in-a-humorous-way business in the first place. There has never been a more beautiful film that deals with themes that cut to the very core of being human: loss, love, friendship and loyalty. I can't say anything about this movie that Roger Ebert didn't say in his review: "Simply put, this is a film that made me remember why I got into the movie reviewing business in the first place. There has never been a more beautiful film that deals with themes that cut to the core of being human, such as talking toys and sight gags."

The Kids Are All Right
Jake says...This is the most pro-child titled film nominated this year. This is about kids being all right, as far as I can surmise from the title. I have to admit that I have yet to see this movie, but my girlfriend has it checked out from the library. I will hold my opinion until I see it, but it will not win the Best Picture Oscar. Frankly, it seems like another faux-indie movie like The Squid and the Whale and Juno.

Glenn says...As the child of a same sex couple, I appreciated this movie. In the larger Hollywood framework, lesbians are one of the most revered subgroups of American culture. In some ways this is the "smallest" of the Best Picture nominees. A relatively inexpensive movie, humble in scope, it tackles family issues that any member of the Academy or general public can relate to - such as having to listen to your parents talking about licking each other's clitorides. This is a movie that really resonated across the Mormon West, though no one can quite figure out why since it's otherwise such a backwards region.

Our Pick
Jake's Pick...I know it's a long shot, but I am going to put my money on The Green Hornet. Seth Rogen has written many great Oscar winning films, and this will be no exception. The Academy loves when people gain or lose weight for a picture, and Seth Rogen got in shape for this one. My favorite part of The Green Hornet is when they fight and they fight a lot! The Fighter also features a lot of fighting, but there aren't enough jokes in it. The Academy of Motion Pictures loves a good joke, which is why Wet Hot American Summer won Best Picture in 2001. I literally just put a $3,000 bet on this movie winning Best Picture and I only have $285 in the bank, so that is how sure I am that this is going to win.

Glenn's Pick...Toy Story 3! It's a movie that's made for families, which means that it can appeal to literally anyone with the possible exception of children that are born in laboratories and raised in working compounds a la the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. If Toy Story 3 had been around in 1975, the Killing Fields never would have happened (the movie, not the actual killing fields). I know people think the Social Network is the shoe-in to win because Mark Zuckerberg just bought the Academy of Motion Pictures and because the film previously won the Golden Globes, but I disagree. In fact, I just went onto Facebook and "liked" Toy Story 3. I hope people don't don't see my news feed and think I am trying to infantilize myself. I just feel very confident about Toy Story 3 winning.